Election Aftermath

In securing the presidency Tuesday night, Barack Obama won several states which went to George W. Bush in 2004:

Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, New Mexico, Colorado, Nevada

And as of today North Carolina and Missouri are still "too close to call," but North Carolina is leaning toward Obama and Missouri is leaning toward McCain.

For me, the biggest surprise was Indiana. Indiana had not gone to a Democrat since 1964, and in 2004 it gave Bush a 21 point lead. No doubt that the economy was a big issue for Hoosiers.

Also, the fact that Obama was able to capture Indiana, Virginia, and presumably, North Carolina, is very telling. I did not think that Obama would sweep all three states, mostly because they all were pro-Bush in 2004. And like Indiana, the last time Virginia went Democrat was in 1964 (for NC, they last went Democrat in 1976).

In the long run, the more devastating losses for the Republicans may be losing Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico - not to mention nearly losing Montana, and showing some vulnerability in North Dakota and Arizona. In 1992, Montana, Nevada, Colorado, and New Mexico were states that went to Clinton, and four years later Clinton picked up Nevada, Arizona, and New Mexico. In the elections of 2000 and 2004, the Democratic candidate picked up one of those western states only once (Gore won New Mexico in 2000). As traditional electoral power states continue to lose electoral votes (such as Pennsylvania), some of these western states will be gaining electoral votes (Nevada for example may gain 3 after the 2010 census).

I have yet to see any solid reports of the national voter turnout. The Washington Post is reporting the total number of votes for each candidate as follows:

Obama - 63,550,319
McCain - 56,178,736

In 2004 about 62 million Americans voted for Bush, which broke the previous record for any one candidate.

If you take those two totals from Obama and McCain, you get about 119.7 million votes between them - which is lower than the 121 million total votes for Bush and Kerry in 2004. So those record national turnout numbers may not actually happen, but it could be a little while until the numbers are finalized.

Don't Forget To Vote!

I was number 232 at my local polling place earlier this morning, and it did not take long at all - about 10 minutes.

So go vote - and be weary of those electronic voting machines:

2008 Election Night + TV = Circus

What to expect when you turn your television on tonight for election coverage? According to Tom LeGro at pbs.org, this year's coverage will include:

"Building-size banners, interviews with holograms, a virtual reality U.S. Capitol building, reporter “Launch Pads,” electronic clipboards, magic maps and magic walls"

LeGro goes on to outline what the major networks will be offering.

Here is a rundown of when the major networks begin coverage. And here is another.

The coverage I'm most looking forward to is Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert's "Indecision '08," which starts at 9 pm (central time) on Comedy Central. But before that begins I'll probably flip around a lot, between ABC, NBC, PBS, and FOX.

Election Eve 2008

Apparently I have two votes.

Yesterday I used the State of Wisconsin Voter Public Access website to verify that I was indeed registered in Eau Claire, and to confirm the location of my polling place. I entered my first name as "Tom," and the page that appeared listed my address from 4 years ago in Madison. Under the "Registration Information" section, it said that my status was still "active."

Then I entered my first name as "Thomas," which brought up a page showing the registration information that reflects my current address in Eau Claire. And it too shows my registration status as "active."

I can only assume that this is some sort of reward for being such a good citizen - two votes!

On a different note, I came across this cool graphic from JSOnline, which shows how the state (county-by-county) has voted in every presidential election since 1964.

Will Tuesday Be "A Seismic Election Day" ?

George Will's column from today looks at several possibilities for Tuesday night.

Some of the things he highlights I mentioned last week in this post.

What Do McCain And Obama Supporters Have In Common?

Election One Week Away

According to 270toWin.com, the outcome is an Obama victory. Brad V. over at Letters in Bottles sent me a link to this site a while ago, and I've spent more than a few minutes there exploring the different tools and links.

One of the things you can do, is look at each state's presidential voting history, and what the polls in each state are saying for 2008:

Wisconsin, 10 electoral votes
-Has not gone Republican since 1984.
-In 2004, WI went to John Kerry by 4 points.
-Recent polls show Obama's lead in Wisconsin between 7 and 13 points.

Some of the so-called battleground states:

Ohio, 20 electoral votes
-George W. Bush won the state by 2 points in 2004.
-Ohio has sided with the eventual winner in the last 11 elections.
-The latest Reuters/Zogby poll shows a 5 point lead for Obama.

Florida, 27 electoral votes
-Has sided with the eventual winner in 9 out of the last 10 elections (1 exception was 1992).
-Went to Bush in 2004 by 5 points.
-The recent polls for Florida show a slight lead for Obama, but the numbers are well within the margin of error.

Pennsylvania, 21 electoral votes
-Has gone to a Democrat the last 4 elections, but Kerry won the state by just 2 points in 2004.
-At one time, the state held 38 electoral votes.
-Like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania is leaning heavily toward Obama.

Virginia, 13 electoral votes
-Bush won the state in 2004 by 8 votes.
-Has not gone to a Democrat since 1964.
-The Washington Post poll from yesterday shows an 8 point Obama lead.

North Carolina, 15 electoral votes
-Has not gone to a Democrat since 1976.
-NC went to Bush by 12 points in 2004.
-Two polls from last week gave McCain a slight edge, but yesterday's Reuters/Zogby poll gave Obama a 4 point lead.

Missouri, 11 electoral votes
-Bush won the state by 7 points in 2004.
-Has sided with the eventual winner in the last 12 elections.
-Three polls from the last few days give Obama a 1-2 point edge.

Colorado, 9 electoral votes
-In the last 10 presidential elections, Colorado has only gone Democratic once - in 1992.
-Gave Bush a 5 point win in 2004.
-About a 4-5 point lead for Obama in Colorado.

Nevada, 5 electoral votes
-Went to Bush by 3 points in 2004.
-Has sided with the eventual winner in the last 7 elections.
-Yesterday's Reuters/Zogby gives Obama a 4 point lead.

Indiana, 11 electoral votes
- Has not gone Democrat since 1964.
-Bush won the state by 21 points in 2004.
-Two polls from last week gave Obama a lead, but yesterday's Reuters/Zogby has a 6 point lead for McCain.

Check It Out: Frontline's "The Choice" On PBS

I just finished watching Frontline's 2-hour overview on the 2008 presidential campaign, which focuses on the lives and careers of both John McCain and Barack Obama. I recommend checking it out - I'm sure it will be rerun on PBS, just set your Tivos and DVRs, or you can watch it online here.

The program devotes a good amount of time to the early years in both candidates' lives, and it does a fine job of highlighting the victories as well as the missteps in both of their careers.

This review makes a good point about how the program (which ends with the announcements of the vice president candidates), is really a chronicle of a past campaign, as new issues have taken over in the last few weeks.

Here are a couple of clips from the documentary: